ABSTRACT
Using a survey of and financial data for Japanese small- and medium-enterprises (SMEs), this paper examines the determinants of firms' use of the business support programs provided by the Japanese government during the COVID-19 pandemic and their effect. With respect to the determinants, we obtain the following three findings: First, firms were more likely to have obtained subsidized loans, grants, or subsidies the more their sales had fallen during the pandemic, suggesting that funds flowed to firms that were adversely affected by the pandemic. Second, the likelihood that firms obtained funds was higher if their credit scores were lower or if they were classified as "zombies” and/or "low-return borrowers” before the pandemic, suggesting that the government programs also helped firms that had been under-performing before the pandemic. Third, firms were more likely to receive funds if they had a stronger relationship with their main bank before, suggesting that bank relationships play an important role in firms' access to government programs. Regarding the causal effects, we obtain the following three findings: First, except for the subsidies for employment adjustment, the support programs increased the cash holdings of user firms. Second, subsidized loans from private financial institutions lowered exit rates, while none of the programs had a significantly positive effect on employment relative to non-users (or in absolute terms). Third, the credit scores and profit-to-sales ratio of firms that used the support programs decreased and the likelihood of such firms being a zombie and/or a low-return borrower increased. Overall, our findings provide a cautionary tale in that the business support programs produced mixed results in that they may have prevented business failures but have also helped to prop up firms that are not viable in the long run. © 2022 Elsevier Inc.
ABSTRACT
Differences in jurisdictional public health actions have played a significant role in the relative success of local communities in combating and containing the COVID-19 pandemic. We forecast the possible COVID-19 outbreak in one US state (Utah) by applying empirical data from South Korea and Italy, two countries that implemented disparate public health actions. Forecasts were created by aligning the start of the pandemic in Utah with that in South Korea and Italy, getting a short-run forecast based on actual daily rates of spread, and long-run forecast by employing a log-logistic model with four parameters. Applying the South Korea model, the epidemic peak in Utah is 169 cases/day, with epidemic resolution by the end of May. Applying the Italy model, new cases are forecast to exceed 200/day by mid-April, with the potential for 250 new cases a day at the epidemic peak, with the epidemic continuing through the end of August. We identify a 3-month variation in the likely length of the pandemic, a 1.5-fold difference in the number of daily infections at outbreak peak, and a 3-fold difference in the expected cumulative cases when applying the experience of two developed countries in handling this virus to the Utah context.
ABSTRACT
Background: Telemedicine can be performed using a conventional videophone or web conferencing system. Then, joint lesions can only be observed and inferred from two-dimensional images, and it is difficult to perform accurate joint assessments, which is essential for the management of rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Objectives: To develop the next-generation online telemedicine system utilizing mixed reality for RA. Methods: We have developed a system that can assess joints accurately in three-dimensions images in real-time, using Azure Kinect DK (depth sensor)/ HoloLens 2 (headset), which are mixed reality technologies, and Teams (online interview/chat) provided by Microsoft. Furthermore, by applying artificial intelligence (AI), we plan to implement additionally to this system 1) a function to quickly catch and automatically evaluate the patient's anxiety and changes in facial expressions at the time of examination, 2) a function to record dialogue with the patient in chronological order, 3) a function to support the detection of swollen joints, and 4) function to automatically analyze the questionnaire. Results: This system remotely connects a rheumatologist in the Nagasaki University Hospital (Nagasaki City, urban area) and a patient with RA and a non-rheumatologist in the Goto Central Hospital (Goto Island, rural area). A three-dimensional hologram of the patient's hand projected in front of a rheumatologist. Using this system, we are able to evaluate joints more accurately than using a conventional videophone or web conferencing system. Conclusion: It is expected that this system will enable remote medical care specializing in rheumatology, which is standardized at a high level even in areas without rheumatologists such as remote islands and remote areas. This system remotely connects Nagasaki City and Goto Island, but due to the performance of the system, it is not limited to these areas and it is possible to connect rheumatologists to any area that can be connected to the network. It is also effective for the purpose of avoiding the risk of infection during long-distance hospital visits under the epidemic of COVID-19 infection. (Figure Presented).